On “Election-Eve” the Presidential Election Looks Grim for McCain
Tomorrow is the big election and it doesn’t appear there is any way Republican candidate John McCain can pull off a win. If we take the CNN electoral map and give all of the undecided states (FL, OH, NC, IN, MO, ND & MT) to McCain, Obama still wins by 44 electoral votes, 291 to 247.
John has proclaimed “the Mac is back” but it doesn’t appear to be mathematically possible, unless the Bradley Effect takes hold. The Bradley Effect is a theory of racism that addresses a significant difference between predictive polls and actual votes cast when whites and blacks run against each other. In 1982 Tom Bradley, an African American, lost the governor’s race in California although polls predicted him to be the favorite. The theory addresses people wanting to hide their racism when asked, but when voting in private, do not vote for a black candidate.
The Republican strategy in these last days before the election is very telling. The McCain campaign has been visiting states that should be firmly in the red, such as: Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina. They have also ramped up their spending on advertising, to match that of Obama in key states. A comparison of the current electoral map to that of 2004 is interesting.
Was it a strategic Republican move to deliberately use McCain for this election? Before the Republicans picked a candidate, I had a theory that because of the state of the nation and the current administration’s approval ratings, this years candidate could never win. The Republicans needed to choose someone respectable who would not embarrass the party and who could essentially hold the line, but who had no real future aspirations. McCain was the perfect candidate. Because of his age (now 72), he would not make a viable future candidate, but would show well for the party and give the base a reason to vote so as not to loose too many congressional seats.
Obama has run a shrewd campaign. A relatively unknown candidate, he swiftly put together an organization that beat the Clintons at their own game. His campaign runs as a finely tuned machine and if his presidency is anything like it, this man will unite the nation. At this point, the republicans should be focused on the battle they may still be able to win: not allowing democrats to take a filibuster-proof 60 senate seats.
John has proclaimed “the Mac is back” but it doesn’t appear to be mathematically possible, unless the Bradley Effect takes hold. The Bradley Effect is a theory of racism that addresses a significant difference between predictive polls and actual votes cast when whites and blacks run against each other. In 1982 Tom Bradley, an African American, lost the governor’s race in California although polls predicted him to be the favorite. The theory addresses people wanting to hide their racism when asked, but when voting in private, do not vote for a black candidate.
The Republican strategy in these last days before the election is very telling. The McCain campaign has been visiting states that should be firmly in the red, such as: Indiana, Virginia, and North Carolina. They have also ramped up their spending on advertising, to match that of Obama in key states. A comparison of the current electoral map to that of 2004 is interesting.
Was it a strategic Republican move to deliberately use McCain for this election? Before the Republicans picked a candidate, I had a theory that because of the state of the nation and the current administration’s approval ratings, this years candidate could never win. The Republicans needed to choose someone respectable who would not embarrass the party and who could essentially hold the line, but who had no real future aspirations. McCain was the perfect candidate. Because of his age (now 72), he would not make a viable future candidate, but would show well for the party and give the base a reason to vote so as not to loose too many congressional seats.Obama has run a shrewd campaign. A relatively unknown candidate, he swiftly put together an organization that beat the Clintons at their own game. His campaign runs as a finely tuned machine and if his presidency is anything like it, this man will unite the nation. At this point, the republicans should be focused on the battle they may still be able to win: not allowing democrats to take a filibuster-proof 60 senate seats.
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